Nickel supply growth threatens tropical biodiversity priority areas

What the study found: Much of the nickel needed for low-carbon technologies and stainless steel is projected to come from mines that overlap with areas important for biodiversity and carbon storage. The study indicates that nickel laterite deposits, which are near-surface deposits often found beneath tropical forests, may provide most future supply, while coastal mines may also contribute a large share.
Why the authors say this matters: The authors say the results highlight a trade-off between meeting future nickel demand for decarbonization and conserving areas critical for biodiversity and climate targets. They conclude that securing ecologically responsible nickel supply requires integrating terrestrial and marine conservation priorities into sourcing and mine development decisions, along with efforts to reduce impacts, increase exploration, and lower long-term demand.
What the researchers tested: The researchers used a global mine-by-mine supply scenario model to estimate future nickel supply from 2025 to 2050. They compared projected supply with the top 10% of global land areas most important for biodiversity and carbon storage, and with the top 10% of global priority areas for conserving marine biodiversity.
What worked and what didn't: The model suggests that nickel laterites account for 78 to 83% of modeled supply over 2025 to 2050. It also indicates that half of mined nickel threatens the top 10% of global land areas most critical for conserving biodiversity and storing carbon, and that 53 to 60% of future supply comes from coastal mines that threaten high-priority marine conservation areas. The study also states that avoiding mining in these areas increases the risk of supply shortfalls, and that a moratorium on deep-sea resource development may increase reliance on nickel from high-priority terrestrial and coastal areas.
What to keep in mind: The findings come from a modeled supply scenario, not direct observation of mining outcomes. The abstract does not describe additional limitations beyond the scope of the scenario analysis.

Key points

• Nickel supply growth is projected to overlap with tropical biodiversity strongholds.
• Nickel laterites are estimated to supply 78 to 83% of modeled nickel from 2025 to 2050.
• Half of mined nickel may threaten the top 10% of global land areas most critical for biodiversity and carbon storage.
• About 53 to 60% of future supply comes from coastal mines that threaten priority marine biodiversity areas.
• Avoiding mining in these high-priority areas increases the risk of supply shortfalls, according to the study.