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NFL money line odds show pricing gaps

A sports betting and financial trading themed illustration showing a football helmet, magnifying glass with trading charts, laptop displaying gains and losses, dice, coins, and a stadium scoreboard in the background.
Research area:Economics, Econometrics and FinanceEconomics and EconometricsSports Analytics and Performance

What the study found

The study found a difference in profitability between similar betting strategies in the NFL spread market and the money line market. A money line is a bet on which team will win outright, while a spread bet adjusts for the expected margin of victory.

Why the authors say this matters

The authors conclude that these results challenge the market efficiency of the NFL betting market and have important implications for sportsbooks and bettors.

What the researchers tested

The researchers used a unique NFL gambling dataset that included both spread and money line data. They compared the average results of naïve strategies in which a bettor wagered $110 on favorites or underdogs across the two markets.

What worked and what didn't

A bettor who wagered $110 on the favorite in every game would, on average, lose $4.50 per game against the spread and $4.53 per game on the money line. A bettor who wagered $110 on the underdog in every game would, on average, lose $3.11 per game in the spread market but lose less than 1 cent per game in the money line market.

What to keep in mind

The abstract does not describe limitations beyond the scope of the NFL dataset and the betting strategies tested. The results reported here are specific to the dataset and conditions examined in the study.

Key points

  • The study compares NFL spread bets and money line bets using a dataset with both kinds of odds.
  • A $110 favorite bet lost about $4.50 per game in both markets on average.
  • A $110 underdog bet lost $3.11 per game in the spread market but less than 1 cent per game in the money line market.
  • The authors report positive returns for underdog money line bets when the closing spread met certain thresholds.
  • The authors say the findings challenge the market efficiency of the NFL betting market.

Disclosure

Research title:
NFL money line odds show pricing gaps
Authors:
Kevin Krieger, Corey A. Shank
Institutions:
University of West Florida, Miami University
Publication date:
2026-02-25
DOI:
10.5750/jpm.v19i2.2325
OpenAlex record:
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AI provenance: This post was generated by OpenAI. The original authors did not write or review this post.

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